Abstract:

We combine econometric estimation with quantitative modeling to generate projections on the trade, GDP, and emissions effects of a potential trade liberalization agreement involving energy-related environmental goods (EREGs) and environmentally preferable products (EPPs). Trade liberalization can contribute to reduced emissions in two ways in our projections: (i) a reduction of import prices of goods promoting energy efficiency; and (ii) a reduction in the costs of intermediate and capital goods used in the production of electricity from renewable-energy sources. Four scenarios are evaluated, combining reductions in tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) for EREGs and EPPs. Using simulations with the WTO Global Trade Model we find (i) an increase in exports of EREGs and EPPs both at the global level and in most regions; (ii) a modest increase in GDP in all regions because of falling tariffs, NTMs, and increased energy efficiency; and (iii) a modest reduction in global emissions of about 0.6%. The dominant channel is energy efficiency, whereas the costs of EREGs as intermediates in renewable energy production play a minor role, with or without end-use control.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108051

Working paper: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202305_e.pdf 

Abstract:

All African countries participate in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost intra-African trade to accelerate structural transformation. At the same time, increasing geopolitical tensions around the world are pressuring countries to ‘reshore’ by retreating from engagement in Global Value Chains (GVCs) towards Regional Value Chains (RVCs). High values for RVC indices would indicate that African exports have a high import content of intermediates originating in Africa and that exports destined to other African countries undergo further processing, an indication of structural transformation. The paper uses the EORA Multi-regional Input–Output (MRIO) data over 1995–2022 to present new, more comprehensive measures of participation in supply chains at several levels: across countries, regions, and sectors. Comparisons are with countries (e.g. China or India) and aggregates of countries (e.g. Europe, Americas, Asia) engaged in deep market integration. Measures for 50 African countries are compared with those for other regions. On average, African exports have a low content of imported intermediates and undergo further transformation in importing countries before reaching final consumers. Compared with other regions, African countries mostly engage in supply chain trade with countries outside Africa, displaying low values of RVC indices. In sum, compared to other regions, African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and other regional trade agreements across the continent have failed to launch intra-African trade. The paper then explores the determinants of participation in supply chains. At the world level, from 1995 to 2022, geography factors and policy-related instruments like openness (captured by tariffs) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stimulate GVC trade. For Africa, low tariffs and FDI are positively associated with regional supply chain activity, an indication that AfCFTA implementation should stimulate intra-African trade.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-024-00574-0 (open access)

Abstract: 

This paper provides evidence on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 51 African and 132 other countries in 163 sectors over the period 1995–2015. The resulting landscape is summarised in four patterns. Patterns identified for Africa differ from those identified for other regions but are closely related to a synthetic aggregate comparator based on key country characteristics. (1) All regions have reduced emission intensities over the period 1995–2015. Africa's share of global CO2 emissions has remained constant from 1995 to 2015. (2) The carbon intensity of production has increased in Africa in both decades. Over half of the 20 top African emitting countries shifted towards more carbon-intensive techniques. (3) Over 1995–2015, intra-regional shares of emissions fell by seven percentage points to 84% for Africa. Africa's share of emissions originating from Asia rose from 4% to 11%. Europe's share of emissions from Africa rose from 2% to 4%, respectively. (4) The export basket of Africa is skewed towards high CO2 equivalent-intensity products. CO2 emission intensities correlate positively with output upstreamness (OU) and input downstreamness (ID). The OU/ID indicator of position in a supply chain is negatively correlated with CO2 emission intensities within regions.

https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13498 

Open access on: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/twec.13498 

Link to the CEPR Working Paper or to the AERC Working Paper.

Related VOX column : Africa’s contribution to world CO2 emissions | CEPR 

French Version of the WP: http://publication.aercafricalibrary.org/handle/123456789/3475 

Abstract: 

Economic analysis has produced ample insights on how international trade and climate policy interact. Trade presents both opportunities and obstacles, and invites the question of how domestic climate policies can be effective in a global economy integrated through international trade. Particularly problematic is the potential relocation of production to regions with low climate standards. Measures to level the playing field, such as border carbon adjustments (BCAs), may be justified for specific emissions-intensive and trade-exposed sectors but need to be well-targeted, carefully navigating tensions that can arise between the desire to respect global trade rules and the need to elaborate and implement effective national climate policies. The conformity of specific trade measures with international trade and climate change law is not entirely clear. Yet, clarity is needed to ensure that the industry actors affected will find the rules predictable and be able to adhere to them. 

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4207

Abstract: 

This paper explores the extent to which market power considerations explain levels of export taxes. Market power is proxied by the inverse import demand elasticities faced by exporters. The paper first provides estimates of market power for exporting countries and products at the 6-digit level of the Harmonized System. It then finds a positive correlation between market power and export taxes. This result supports the theory that, when unconstrained in their trade policy choices, countries take their market power into account when setting their export taxes.

Keywords: Market power; Export taxes; Export policy; Import demand elasticities

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103425

Abstract:

Few developing countries have participated in the environmental goods agreement (EGA) negotiations to reduce barriers on trade in Environmental Goods (EGs). Reasons for this reluctance are first reviewed along with a comprehensive description of barriers to trade (tariffs and NTBs) on two lists of EGs used in negotiations: the APEC list comprising mostly industrial products representative of high-income countries that served as point of departure on the negotiations for an Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) and a list of Environmentally Preferable Products (EPPs) more representative of the perceived interests of developing countries. The paper then revisits and extends the literature on the estimation of barriers to trade in EGs for these lists. These estimates are carried out with a structural gravity model with: (i) new data on bilateral (rather than MFN) tariffs, and a new classification of NTBs; (ii) a measure of regulatory overlap in bilateral trade. Results show that tariffs reduce the intensity of bilateral trade. Regulatory harmonization, as captured by an increase in regulatory overlap is also estimated to be conducive to more intense bilateral trade.

Keywords: Environmental goods, WTO, Trade and environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104910

Related Vox Column : https://voxeu.org/article/what-s-wrong-wto-s-environmental-goods-agreement 

Abstract:

Decade-long negotiations on the reduction of tariffs on Environmental Goods (EGs) at the Doha Round using a list approach to define EGs, failed to produce an agreement. In July 2014, fourteen countries entered plurilateral negotiations under the ambit of the WTO. If successful, the resulting Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) would have eliminated tariffs on a list of EGs. These negotiations broke down in December 2016. This article documents this episode and the mercantilistic behaviour of negotiators that prevented agreement on an extended list of EGs, a prerequisite for a meaningful outcome for the environment.

A conclusion of the EGA negotiations under the current narrow agenda focusing only on tariffs could help build trust to go further but would be insufficient to help mitigate climate change, even if a critical mass were to be reached allowing extension of the tariff reductions to all WTO members. This is because average tariffs for the negotiating group are too low (1.5%). Extending the agenda to include Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) and Environmental Services (ESs) remains the acid test for an EGA to address meaningfully the climate change challenge. Reaching agreement on how to tackle NTBs and ESs will require delegating negotiating authority to independent scientific experts and probably modifying WTO rules.

Aligning the trade and climate regimes will call for transformational changes in the WTO contract to take into account transnational externalities and public goods. This would amount to a shift from the present negative contract where countries are free to choose their policies so long as they do not discriminate between domestic and imported goods to a positive contract where WTO members have to pursue similar climate-friendly policies.

Keywords: Environmental goods, Environmental services, EGA, WTO, trade and environment, tariffs, NTBs

https://kluwerlawonline.com/journalarticle/Journal+of+World+Trade/54.3/TRAD2020015 

Abstract: 

We measure the extent to which Swiss market access would be affected in a global trade war. After calculating the change in tariffs at the tariff-line level that Swiss exporters would face in a trade war, we then aggregate them at the industry, destination market, and global level using theoretically well-grounded aggregation methods first introduced by Anderson and Neary (1996). Our results suggest that Swiss market access will be seriously jeopardized in the event of a global trade war, with an increase in tariffs faced by Swiss exporters of 34 percentage points. The largest increases in tariffs would be experienced in large destination markets where Swiss exporters currently benefit from low export barriers (the European Union, the United States and Japan). Chemicals, machinery, professional and scientific equipment, and food experience above average increases in tariff barriers.

Related column in French and German on https://dievolkswirtschaft.ch/fr/2020/04/nicita-olarreaga-silva-solleder-04-2020fr/ 

Abstract:

Ever since the creation of the WTO, attempts at bringing together the trade and climate regime have failed. This paper argues that a successful EGA-STyle (EGAST) agenda should go beyond the elimination of ‘nuisance tariffs’ to include high energy-efficiency EGs and high-tariff products. The EG list should also include Environmentally Preferable Products. As to the difficult-to-detect Non-tariff Barriers (e.g., non-tariff measures), among which some are protectionist in intent, they should be included in the agenda up for mutual recognition. The paper concludes that negotiations to reduce barriers to trade in EGs would be a promising avenue for rapprochement between the trade and climate regimes.

Keywords:  Environmental Goods; WTO; Climate Change; EGA;

https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/handbook-on-trade-policy-and-climate-change-9781839103230.html 

The book is available in open-access :

https://www.eria.org/publications/regional-integration-and-non-tariff-measures-in-asean/ 

Book and corresponding working papers are available in open-access :

https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/industries-without-smokestacks-2 

Abstract:

This paper documents African manufacturing exports along several dimensions. Manufacturing exports triply concentrated at 3 levels: countries that produce and export [half of exported manufactures come from 3 countries: South Africa (27%), Egypt (10%), and Morocco (10%)]; sectoral affiliation as 4 sectors account for 65% of exports [basic metals (33%), chemicals (13%), food sector (11%), motor vehicle sector (8%)] destination markets [37% to European markets and 29% to African markets]. Supply chain trade increased in all regions over the period 1995-2015. Africa’s average Global Value Chain (GVC) share rose by 13% to reach 44% in 2022. Currently, the import content of gross exports is relatively low, around 15% while the share of exports undergoing further processing at destination before reaching the final consumer is higher throughout, in the 20-25% range.

Link to the WP.

Abstract:

Estimates of Grossman and Helpman (1994) "Protection For Sale" (PFS) model yield unrealistically high estimates of the weight governments put on social welfare relative to lobbying contributions, with estimates of the former often being more than ten times larger than the latter. We argue this is due to the level of aggregation at which the model has been estimated so far. While protection is determined at the tariff line level, production data is only available at the industry level. Using a new production dataset at the tariff level, our estimates confirm the presence of aggregation bias when estimating the PFS model at the industry level. At the tariff line level, the average weight on social welfare in a sample of 146 countries declines by 80 percent.

https://cepr.org/publications/dp19418 

Abstract:

We estimate the mobility costs of workers across sectors and regions in a large sample of developing countries. We develop a new methodology that uses cross-sectional data only. This is motivated by panel data being typically unavailable for developing countries. Our main identifying assumption for the labour mobility costs is that the age of the worker, or rather the time to retirement, is an important determinant of whether it is profitable to change jobs. We estimate the median sector mobility cost to be 0.77 times workers’ annual labour income, the median region mobility cost to be 0.49 times workers’ annual income, and the median cost of moving both sector and region to be 0.98 times workers’ annual income. Women face higher mobility costs. The median welfare gains from removing sector, region, and sector/region mobility costs are estimated at 3, 2, and 5 per cent of real annual wages, respectively.

https://cepr.org/publications/dp19209

Abstract:

Treaties implemented by Regional Organizations (ROs) among which the eight Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have piloted integration across the African continent. The recently created Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), effective since May 2019, is the latest effort along the roadmap started with the Abuja Treaty of 1994 and continued with the launch of ‘Agenda 2063’ on the 50th anniversary of the OAU. This survey has two objectives: take stock of progress at market integration and understand the causes of the African ‘proximity gap’. The review singles out two areas for reducing intra-regional trade costs: adopting simple rules of origin, i.e. rules that are business friendly rather than business owned (details in annex A3) and ‘taking seriously’ the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). New estimates suggest that if the average time in customs for imports at the African Union level were to be reduced to the average time for exports, that is reduced by 49 hours, this would be equivalent to a reduction of 2.7% on tariffs in importing countries.The greatest challenge ahead is increasing the provision of Regional Public Goods (RPGs). These are under-provided across the continent. Because this survey is mostly about economic integration, we only coverevidence of RPGs in two areas: peace and security and cross-border infrastructure. For both, the evidence suggests that provision of these RPGs has been low. Greater provision would be conducive, if not essential, to the success of African regional integration.

https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/working-paper-342-market-integration-across-africaprogress-and-challenges-ahead